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GW19 Bets

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Merry Xmas! Slightly reduced service over the festive period, however still some interesting bets out there to look out for after you’ve finished your boxing day turkey sandwiches.

 Key bets based on current prices (all with team selection considerations - see below for detail)

Ful v Sou – Ful win - This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. - 2%

Mnu v New – Draw - Pinnacle@6.8 - 2%

Nor v Che – Under 2.5 goals - This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. - 2%
Nor v Che – Nor win - Pinnacle@6.5 - 1%

Rea v Swa – Over 2.5 goals - Pinnacle@1.9 - 2.5%

Sto v Liv – 1-1 - Stan James@7 - 2%
Sto v Liv – 1-0 - Betfair@10.5 - 1%
 
Xmas longshot

Eve v Wig – 2-2 - BlueSq@21 - 0.5%
 

All odds are stated in decimals, and stake sizes recommended are a percentage of your overall bankroll (if £1k bankroll, you’ll generally be placing bets between £10-£50 per game).

Note - Value betting is a long-term strategy that takes advantage of mismatches between the statistical likelihood of an event occurring versus the bookmaker prices available. As such, bankroll and stake sizing are a critical component of a value betting strategy in order to handle to volatility in the performance of bets.

Syndicate target returns = 25%*
Season to date returns = 34%*
* Returns as a % bankroll per season


Ful v Sou
Ful win @ 2.01 with Pinnacle. Priced at 1.8 with several of the other bookmakers, this has been drifting out all week, likely on the back of Fulham’s previous week’s display. We’ve priced between 1.8 and 1.9, therefore the over evens price looks strong value.

In terms of player news, Ruiz has been labeled as 50:50 for the game. There is a slight issue with Fulham’s scoring threat without Ruiz, as he enables Berbatov to push further forward, and they have been much more successful with this pairing. Without Ruiz, Berbs has been played in a less advanced role, behind Rodellaga, which Jol has said himself is fine when Berbs is on the ball, but off the ball, he can’t match the movement of someone like Ruiz. On the plus side for Fulham, Sidwell will return from his 1 match ban. This does give them a natural holding midfield player, which tightens them up as a defensive unit, and without Lallana, Southampton’s attacking threat is severely reduced.
As such, there is still enough from Fulham for a win bet at the above evens price in our view, however we’ll be holding for team news to determine stake sizes, with the availability of Ruiz obviously pushing us higher.
 
Eve v Wig
As a syndicate, we’ll most likely be looking at this in-play. Everton have already had to come from behind in 8 of their 19 premier league games to get something from the game, therefore, it is well set up for a swing trade.

However, Everton have already drawn 4 games 2-2 this season, and we believe that this demonstrates a slight shift in the Everton mentality compared to previous seasons, as they have a more attacking group of players in Jelavic, Mirallas, Pienaar, Osman, Gibson, and Naismith, which leaves them slightly more exposed to previous seasons. Bookmaker prices at over 20s therefore reflect contain an element of Everton's more defensive lineups historically, and therefore we've included the bet as a Xmas longshot.
 
Mnu v New
Newcastle are without Tiote (their key holding midfield player), which means there is a chance Pardew will go with 5 in the middle. If Pardew does do this, and Rooney is rested at the started, we really like the value in the draw bet, at least for the start of the game. The draw bet trades reasonably well in-play, as if there are no goals, it shortens, and if the inferior team scores first, it can shorten. With the draw bet currently priced at over 6.8 with Pinnacle, it’s something we're looking to take pending the team news.

If these line-ups are selected, there is also some value in the Newcastle +1.5 & 2 asian line handicap price at evens.
 
Nor v Che
Another one contingent on the starting lineups. Off the back of an 8-0 win, there is a chance that Chelsea could rest some of their bigger players to bring them on from the bench later on, given that they go to Everton before new year, and they've had a very busy schedule in recent weeks.

Last week’s results have also brought the Norwich win price out from 4.5 to 6.5, which in our view makes the Norwich win bet considerable value. Alternatively, the Chelsea implied lay price is 2.5, as although Norwich did take some beatings in the early league games, as we have previously mentioned, that was without Bassong and Tettey, who make the spine of the team  much more difficult to beat.  

Therefore, if the Chelsea starting XI is slightly weakened due to player rotation, we like the value in both the Norwich win bet at 6.5s and the Under 2.5 goals price at 2.4.
 
Qpr v Wba
As we mentioned last week, Qpr’s win price since Harry has joined seems to very optimistic for a team that has only won once all season. With the transfer window coming up, Harry will be juggling the task of managing the team and weighing up offers from some unknown players without passports. Wba’s ‘dip in form’ over the past few games still seemed over hyped in our view, and they have a reasonable squad depth to rotate with during this period, and their lively forwards are likely to Nelson’s and Hill’s aging legs problems throughout this game.

There are currently 2 very attractive Asian line prices on Wba: Wba + 0 at 2.32 (ie refund if it’s a draw), or Wba + 0 & 0.5 at 1.92. The Wba win price has been drifting in all week, so this is one we’ll be looking to take early, rather than waiting until gametime.
 
Rea v Swa
Reading switched to 5 in the middle for the first time this season versus City, and City started Barry instead of Nasri, which made the goal threat from the game considerably less than it could have been. Whilst the tactic was successful for Reading, if they do opt to switch back to 2 up front, the fixture could be a goal frenzy. Swansea themselves cannot defend set pieces, and Shorey’s delivery has been Reading’s weapon all season, particularly with the Pog and Hunt’s proficiency in the air.
Over 2.5 goals is at 1.9+ with Pinnacle right now.
 

Sto v Liv (7.45pm KO)
As usual, the Liv win price has been drifting in all week, and the Stoke win price has drifted out from 3.6 to 4.12. We’ve been looking through the Stoke stats in more detail in recent weeks, since their drawing propensity has gone through the roof this season.
This season, in over 75% of Stoke games, no team has scored more than 1 goal, if you go back to last season, and even their pre-season friendly games, this statistic is still over 60%, however backing the 0-0,1-0,0-1,1-1 scorelines gives you odds of better than evens.

The odds currently on offer are:
1-1 @ 7s
0-0 @ 9s
1-0 Sto @ 10.5
0-1 Liv @ 7.5
 
The 1-1 scoreline is perhaps the most interesting. 1-1 is the most common scoreline in the premier league, at a frequency of almost 12%, however since last season Stoke have drawn over 20% of all of their games 1-1, with a high frequency when at home. The biggest price available at 7s implies the score for Stoke occurs at only 14%.

The Stoke win bet against Liverpool is rising up from 4.12, however if Stoke do win, the most likely scoreline is 1-0, which is trading at 10.5 on Betfair, therefore we feel you can get enough exposure to the Stoke win by taking the 1-0 at over double the price, and this can trade very well in play.

The 0-0 and 0-1 bets follow similar logic to above, and enable coverage to the Liverpool win.

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