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GW20 Bets

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The next 2 gameweeks are full of rotation and fatigue, and as we mentioned over Xmas, this is the highest variance period of the season particularly with a number of teams playing their second away game in 4 days, and therefore conducive to potentially some of the biggest returns of the season. We've kept the commentary succinct this week...


 Key bets based on current prices (all with team selection considerations - see below for detail)

Sun v Tot (Sat 29th12:45)
Sun win - This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. - 2%
or
Tot lay - This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. - 2%*

Ful v Swa (Sat 29th15:00)
Ful win - This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. - 2%
Swa lay - This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. - 2.5%*

Rea v Whm (Sat 29th15:00)
Draw - This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. - 2%

Sto v Sou (Sat 29th15:00)
1-1 - BetVictor@7.5 - 1.5%
0-0 - SkyBet@10 - 0.5%
or
Sou lay - Betfair@5 - 2.5%*

Eve v Che (Sun 30th13:30)
Che lay - This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. - 2%

QPR v Liv (Sun 30th16:00)
Liv lay - This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. - 2.5%*
 

*  Betfair lay stake sizes refer to total liability NOT backer's stake.
All odds are stated in decimals, and stake sizes recommended are a percentage of your overall bankroll (if £1k bankroll, you’ll generally be placing bets between £10-£50 per game).


Note - Value betting is a long-term strategy that takes advantage of mismatches between the statistical likelihood of an event occurring versus the bookmaker prices available. As such, bankroll and stake sizing are a critical component of a value betting strategy in order to handle to volatility in the performance of bets.

Syndicate target returns = 25%*
Season to date returns = 31%*
* Returns as a % of bankroll per season


Sun v Tot
The in-house pricing stats favour the Sunderland win bet or the Spurs lay. Spurs are playing their second away game in 4 days, and despite winning emphatically against Villa, there is a good chance AVB will rotate some key players including Bale given his recent return from injury.
Sunderland on the other hand are begining to show their worth. The biggest drawback for Sunderland is the unavailability of Rose, and potentially O'Shea which will disrupt their defence. As such, whilst there is still value evident in the Sunderland win price, the Tottenham lay might be preferred. Either way, prices are currently moving in our favour, so in terms of syndicate bets, we'll be holding until pregame to get the biggest price and to confirm team news.
 
Ful v Swa
Again, the pricing stats really like the home win bet or away team lay. Fulham welcomed back Ruiz for 45 mins against Southampton, and if he's fit enough to start against Swansea it makes the Fulham win a strong proposition. Swansea will definitely be without Michu, although it looks like Rangel and Hernandez will be available, so Swansea will still be competitive, therefore either the Fulham win or Swansea lay represent good value bets.

Mnu v WBA
We've not included this in the summary bets above, however there is value evident in the pre-game United win at 1.33 or the WBA lay, but this only returns 1.09.
Given how well United have traded in-play this season, there is a temptation to hold for the scenario where United either go a goal down or are still not winning after 30 minutes to take a bigger United win price. One thing we would say is that the United in-play bet generally works better when United are away, not at home, however we'll be monitoring this game in-play, and will try to keep Twitter updated with any Syndicate betting activity during the game.

Rea v Whm
The pricing stats like the draw bet most here, and since Reading have switched to 5 in the middle to tighten things up it appears to have made them a much more difficult team to beat, conceding only 1 in their last 2, including a visit to the champions. This has reduced their goal scoring threat, but we expect that if they do go a goal behind, then they can revert to their old more attacking ways to try and get something out of the game.

Sto v Sou
The Stoke win bet has been drifting out from 1.8 since the prices were first posted, which may seem surprising given their recent win over Liverpool and the continued absence of Lallana for Southampton. However the drift in the Stoke win price is consistent with our in-house pricing, with the biggest value apparent in the draw - which does tend to come in up to gametime for Stoke matches. We maintain that if you're into backing the Stoke draw however, you're return can be maximised by taking the 1-1 (BetVictor@7.5) and 0-0 (SkyBet@10), which gives an implied draw price of 4.28 relative to the 3.6 on offer. 

Eve v Che
Both teams have strong form, and this is arguably a game where Fellani could have really come in handy for Everton, however the pricing data still shows strong value in the Chelsea lay at 2.6 with Betfair, which increases in value if Mata gets rested for the start of this game.

QPR v Liv
The battle of the underpriced teams. QPR's pricing however seems to be correcting itself each week, implying the pricing deficiency was more a result of the uncertainty surrounding the Redknapp effect. Liverpool on the other hand continue to be priced like a top 4 team. Until this abates, the Liverpool lay bet is something we expect to be tipping all season.

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