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GW23 Bets

Syndicate target returns 25% vs Season to date returns 26%*

GW23 Key Bets Under Consideration

Saturday 3pm
2% @>3.8 New v Rea DRAW 4@BetVictor

2% @>3.8 Wba v Avl DRAW 3.8@BetVictor

Sunday 1:30pm
3% @>1.85 CHE to beat Ars 1.98@Pinnacle
 

Click to view GW23 Full pricing stats

Games at risk of postponement
A quick word on the games with the highest risk of postponement given the weather conditions. Currently these are believed to be: Liv v Nor, Wig v Sun, Swa v Sto, Wba v Avl.
As such, we’ve held off taking any exposure to these games until more info is available. However, as an aside, Ladbrokes now have a market on the top fantasy premier league scorer for the week, with Theo currently at 12s. Whilst they’re able to wack plenty of commission onto these prices as it’s a unique market, if there are postponements, there may be some value in getting exposure to the Arsenal high scoring players in this market, as both these games could still go ahead.
 
Back to the key bets under consideration:

Che v Ars CHE win
This price has yo yo’d on the back of the midweek results, with Chelsea at almost evens now from as low as 1.8 on Tuesday, and potentially more drift available up to gametime. No significant player news on monitor and both teams played midweek with relatively strong starting XIs. Arsenal should have Podolski and Oxlade-Chamberlain available to provide some freshness, and Chelsea have a fresh Torres available and strong rotational cover in most places. The Chelsea price looks to be diluted by their recent home form, however this has generally been against teams setting up with the main aim of not conceding which Arsenal do not have the mentality or players to do, so we're expecting a more open game with Chelsea's strength in depth providing the ultimate edge.
 
Wba v Avl DRAW
Currently available at 3.8, however with the book at over 101%, there should hopefully be some tightening in prices up to gametime. Based purely on the stats, not necessarily an immediate pick, however taking into consideration player availability for Wba (injury concerns over: Yacob, Morrison, Long, Olsson and Brunt), the fact that Wba played midweek (and lost) and Villa were rested, the return to the Villa team of Ron Vlaar, and the fact that it is a local derby, the draw has more value in the price than the basic stats imply.
 
New v Rea DRAW
Available at 4, although there will be some price correction on this book before game time, as it’s currently an arb. Another one that doesn’t necessarily stand out based purely on the stats, but the approach to the game by both teams influences our pick. The Newcastle price has been drifting in all week, no doubt influenced by the return of Cabaye last weekend. The loss of Ba hasn’t impacted price significantly, and playing Cisse central as per the second half of last season should be sufficient replacement. However, Reading have figured out that if they keep 9 men behind the ball they have a chance of not conceding, but if they do concede they can revert to their more open style, and attack teams.
This plays well for the draw bet as if Reading go a goal ahead, the draw price comes in anyway, and if they go behind they have the ability to come back at teams.
 
Tot v Mnu IN-PLAY
No major player uncertainties regarding this fixture and there does appear to be plenty of value in the pre-game United price, however this does look like a bet that could trade well in play (via the Spurs lay if they go ahead, or the United back at bigger odds).
Particular trading points will likely be at the time of substitutions, since United having the full attacking compliment available meaning some key players may well start on the bench.

Lastly, a quick note on the Swansea v Stoke game. Whilst there is seemingly plenty of value implied in the stats, we're treating this game with caution given the weather, since the adverse playing conditions should suit Stoke's set piece ability versus Swansea's Welsh tiki-taka.
 

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