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GW26 Bets

GAME WEEK 26

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Syndicate target returns 25% vs Season to date returns 49%*


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GW26 Key Bets Under Consideration
Recommendations as a percentage of total bankroll

Lower variance Picks
3%@>1.75 Swa v Qpr - Under 2.5 goals 1.83@BetVictor (drifting in)

3%@>2 Ars lay 2.1 (via Sun win & Draw) @Pinnacle (drifting out)

3%@>1.7 Mnu to beat Eve 1.81@Pinnacle (stable) (17:30 KO)

5%@>1.18 Eve lay 1.25 via: Mnu win 1.81@Pinnacle & Draw 4@BetVictor


Higher variance picks
2%@>4 Tot v New - DRAW 4.19@Pinnacle (drifting out) (12:45 KO)

2%@>3.7 Swa v Qpr - DRAW 3.7@Pinnacle (stable)

2%@>4.5 Sun to beat Ars - 4.72@Pinnacle (drifting out)

1.5%@>3.2 Liv lay 3.43@Pinnacle (drifting out) (Monday 8pm)

 

Note - A number of the selections above are obviously duplicates (ie the Man united win bet and Everton lay). Either one of these bets is being considered NOT both. We do not recommend taking an exposure of over 5% for an individual game.

Anyway, back to the picks...


Sat 12:45 Tot v New - Draw
As mentioned above, a high variance pick, however with the availability of a first choice out and out striker for Spurs seemingly hinging on the reliability of air travel, the French revolution at Newcastle, and the egos of the vainest managers in the premier league at stake, there is not only plenty of potential value in the draw bet here, but it is also a fixture that could trade well in play with score line swings. Newcastle will be keen to go for wins to take them out of a relegation battle, and their new player base gives them a significant goal threat, and Tottenham, even without a main striker, contain enough pace, power and character to threaten any premier league opponents.

Swa v Qpr - Under 2.5 goals & Draw
The goal analysis on these teams puts an under 2.5 outcome in this game at just under 60%, versus the price implied frequency of 55%, so whilst the price has been backed in from 1.88 earlier in the week, we're still comfortable with the statistical value on offer. Qpr have become very well set up defensively under Harry, particularly away from home against superior opposition. However they may still be without a fit out and out striker, with only 'a chance Remy will play' per HR, and Zamora still not back to full fitness. This lack of a main striker plays into the hands of a low scoring match, as the game plan tends to become much more based on keeping a clean sheet and scoring the odd goal. In addition, they've moved into the transfer market to resolve their defensive issues following the loss of Nelsen (who wasn't actually that good anyway). Equally, Swansea appear to have mastered the art of keep ball and counter attack, and they have been very resolute under Laudrup who appears very conscious of what is required to win or take points from matches, even if this requires sacrificing a bit of style or flair, which again lends itself to a low scoring affair.
Lastly, we are expecting late drift on the draw price, so won't execute this until gameday, which gives the additional advantage of assessing team news.

Sun v Ars - Sun win/Ars lay
Lots of implied value in opposing Arsenal in this fixture. Arsenal's away form has been unconvincing, and Sunderland have added to their goal threat with the signing of Graham, which could give Sunderland the opportunity to exploit Arsenal's eternal weakness at set pieces. In addition, some doubts exist over the fitness of Walcott and Vermaelen, 2 key players for Arsenal (see the Injury news section of the site to keep up to date with latest player injuries). The most value does appear to lie within the straight Sunderland win part of the bet, however, those looking for lower variance returns can take on the straight lay, or weight the lay towards the win side of the bet.

Mnu v Eve - Mnu win/Eve lay
The obvious obstacle to this bet is the forthcoming Real Madrid game. However with the prices as they currently stand, it's almost a 2% arb, so someone is wrong and the best bets are spread across the market, with Pinnacle leading on the United win at >1.8, Paddy Power holding Everton at 5.5, and the rest of the market holding the draw 4. The United team selection is obviously pivotal to the bet, however there doesn't appear to be any key player injury news on their front, whereas we're expecting to hear news of a Fellani injury setback for Everton. Without Fellani, Everton have been very inconsistent this season, and they have no in-form goal scorer to threaten United significantly.

Liv v Wba - Liv lay
As usual, we maintain that Liverpool are mispriced, however their recent pick up in form, particularly since the addition of Sturridge makes this a higher variance pick so take on at your peril. Wba have had some very public key player issues, however they are generally a resolute side, and although their early season scalp of Liverpool was essentially against 10-men most of the game, they will set themselves up as difficult to beat in order to try and take something from the game. 

* Returns as % of bankroll per season - read the Value Betting tutorial for more info. Includes 12% rtn on FPL top scorer betting

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