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GW30 Bets

GAME WEEK 30

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Syndicate target returns 25% vs Season to date returns 43%*

GW30 Key Bets Under Consideration**
Recommendations as a percentage of total bankroll

Pre-match passive bets (ie no in-play trade required)
4%@>1.7 Middlesbrough v Birmingham - Over 2.5 goals - 1.97@Pinnacle
3%@>1.7 - Wig v New - Over 2.5 goals - 1.8@Ladbrokes
3%@>1.7 Sou v Liv - Over 2.5 goals - 1.74@Pinnacle
2.5%@>1.9 SUN to beat Nor - 2.1@SkyBet

High variance & In-play trade bets
1%@>3.5 - Eve v Mci DRAW - 3.6@BetVictor
1%@>3.35 - Avl v Qpr DRAW - 3.44@Pinnacle
1%@>3.65 - Sou v Liv DRAW - 3.8@Bet365
1%@>3.45 - Swa v Ars DRAW - 3.54@Pinnacle
1%@>8.5 - Mnu v Rea DRAW - 9.1@Pinnacle


A slight change in format to the presentation of the picks following some recent feedback given that a number of you are unable to actively trade on game day, and following a week that actually played out significantly better for those who were actively trading in play (with the Liv v Spurs draw and Man United win prices falling under 1.2 but ultimately losing).

As such, for want of a better expression, the pre-match passive bets can be backed more blindly, although since not all uncertainty can removed as team selection can always influence a pick, we'll still notify by exception on Twitter whether any of the matchday news has altered our views on these selections. The higher variance/in-play trades as the name suggests are generally made up of picks we still perceive to contain value, however with a health warning that it is more likely not to come in for a given individual game week (however we expect positive long-term returns), or that we intend to trade out in play (for example with the Mnu v Rea game above).

Anyway, back to the picks...

Boro v Birmingham
You may not know a great deal about Championship football, but in general, whilst the bookmaker overround is slightly bigger on Championship games given the reduced market volume, the prices lack the sophistication of the better known premier league markets, and games are priced considerably more generically, giving rise to plenty of value opportunitie. In this case, without going into too much detail on the pricing, 72% of Boro's league home games have finished with over 2.5 goals this season, compared to 50% of Birmingham's away games, making the almost evens price a top pick for us this week.

Wigan v Newcastle
Some concerns over the withdrawl of Cabaye from last night's Europa league match, who does offer Newcastle a significant goal threat particularly from setpieces. However in general, we maintain that Newcastle's goal threat from the new players added in January is still not being factored into their prices, and Wigan continue to demonstrate that they don't start their season until March, just to give everyone else a chance.

Southampton v Liverpool
In spite of the blanks drawn at Norwich last week, Southampton will face a much more open Liverpool side this week, which should facilitate their playing style and enable goals for both teams during this game. As such, there's equally value in the BTTS bets at >1.65, however we've opted for the over 2.5 goal bet this week, given the current form of Liverpool's attacking players.

Sunderland v Norwich
Sunderland's apparent slump in form appears to have favourably impacted this price. They faced a Qpr team with nothing to lose last weekend, and Norwich at home will be a very different proposition and given the difficulty of Sunderland's forthcoming fixture list, O'Neil will view this as a must win game, which plays well for the home win bet.

Draw picks
As mentioned above, these could all be taken with a view to trade out in play, which can be set up pre game on betfair at specific odds, or using a product like BetAngel.
 

* Returns as % of bankroll per season - read the Value Betting tutorial for more info. Includes 12% rtn on FPL top scorer betting
**All bets subject to review of price movements, team announcements and in play trading opportunities on gamedays. Please follow the Twitter account for game day news

 

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