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GW32 Bets

GAME WEEK 32

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Syndicate target returns 25% vs Season to date returns 43%*

Key Bets Under Consideration**
Recommendations as a percentage of total bankroll

Pre-match passive bets (ie no in-play trade required)
2%@>1.7 Tot v Eve - Under 2.5 - 1.85@Betfair
0.5%@>1.9 Tot v Eve - BTNTS - 2.1@188BET
1.5%@>1.7 Nor v Swa - Under 2.5 - 1.8@Ladbrokes
0.5%@>1.9 Nor v Swa - BTNTS - 2.1@PaddyPower
2%@>2 Wba v Ars - Under 2.5 -  2.18@Pinnacle
0.5%@>1.9 Liv v Whm - BTNTS - 2.1@PaddyPower

High variance/In-play closeout bets
1%@>3 Rea to beat Sou - 3.3@Bet365
 

Passive Bets

Tot v Eve
An 8% probability drift on the Spurs win price (1.95 out to 2.3) following the loss of Bale last night, which for obvious reasons is as big an impact for an individual player you'll see all season and serves as a good reminder of how risk free returns can be made just by keeping up pace with latest news. The under 2.5 goal bet has also moved from evens to a best price of 1.85 at the time of writing, however we don't think the move is big enough, given that Fellani, Pienaar, Bale, and Defoe are all out, and have contributed such a significant proportion of their team goals this season. Definitely one to execute immediately, as the price is only likely to come in further.

Nor v Swa
Even though this game finished 4-3 to Norwich at the Liberty stadium earlier in the season, we're treating that as an anomaly, and it's another game where we don't expect many goals given the general performance and setups of both these team this season. Whilst Norwich could do with winning the game to ensure their premier league safety, their end of season run-in is still reasonable regardless of this result, so we expect it to be a typical tight defensive display from Hughton's side, with the aim to take advantage of Swansea's apparent weaknesses at set pieces.

Wba v Ars
On the face of it, there looks to be only one way West Brom will approach this one: let Arsenal keep the ball and hit them on the break or with set pieces. Arsenal will be without Wilshire and Walcott who have been influential in Arsenal's creativity and goal scoring this season and whilst they have reasonable cover, almost 70% of Arsenal's away games have actually finished under 2.5 goals this season as a result of the way teams have setup to deal with their possession dominance, and as such the price at over evens looks attractive.

Liv v Whm
Essentially a bet that West Ham won't score given Liverpool's considerable attacking quality, goal scoring form, and home advantage. West Ham will be without their main goal scoring threat in Carroll since he is ineligible to play in accordance with the terms of the loan arrangement. The PaddyPower price is 5% better than other competitors (in terms of probability), and does stand out as a misprice that is worth taking advantage of.

High variance/In-play trading bets

Mnu v Mci
Not included above, however it will be interesting to see team news on this game, as Rooney has recently been unavailable through injury and subject of transfer talk once again, and the United win bet isn't as attractive without his presence. Additionally, Mancini has sprung numerous selection surprises this season, and pending Aguero, City have all their best players available now. So, the subs bench will be of considerable interest as both sides could include a bench of match winning players, which could set up an attractive swing pending the scoreline and timing of the substitutions made.


 

* Returns as % of bankroll per season - read the Value Betting tutorial for more info. Includes 12% rtn on FPL top scorer betting
**All bets subject to review of price movements, team announcements and in play trading opportunities on gamedays. Please follow the Twitter account for game day news

 

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