|
Location |
Index |
2011 Annual rtn |
Jan 2012 Mth rtn |
Feb 2012 Mth rtn |
Apr 2012 Mth rtn |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USA | DIJA | 5.5% | (0.09)% | 1.52% | (1.38)% |
|
USA |
S&P 500 |
0.0% | 0.11% | 3.03% | (2.13)% |
| UK |
FTSE 350 |
(6.5)% | 2.55% | 3.73% | (0.6)% |
| Europe | Eurostoxx | (17.1)% | 0.30% | 4.82% | (8.91)% |
| Germany | DAX | (14.7)% | 0.59% | 7.04% | (4.78)% |
| France | CAC40/French 40 | (17.0)% | 0.27% | 5.54% | (8.19)% |
| Hong Kong | Hang Seng | (20.0)% | 0.11% | 5.26% | 1.29% |
| Japan | Nikkei | (17.3)% | (0.51)% | 2.79% | (3.34)% |
Headline movements...
April 2012 mth:
Equity markets ended the month of April in negative territory with the MSCI World Index falling 1.7%, and the FTSE 350 TR Index posting a -0.33% return.
The surge in equity market performance at the back end of 2011, continued into 2012, has subsided since mid March, with the FTSE falling several percent. In Europe, equity markets have fallen further, as peripheral European countries have started to unsettle markets again, and european politics has again begun to dominate market performance.
Meanwhile, in the East, Chinese authorities are still fighting to engineer a soft landing and Japan is, despite its recent monetary loosening, battling to keep its currency attractive to the global consumer, without which, the long awaited Japanese recovery is almost certain to falter.
Feb 2012 mth:
February maintained the positive trend for risk assets as economic data releases continued a generally positive bias. Equity and credit markets broadly made progress as investors await 'what happens next' for LTRO Mark II. However, with over €1.1 trillion of liquidity provided in the two facilities to date, fear of any systemic has subsided. For now.
Since the first LTRO announcement in December, and after the lows of October 2011, many indices have recovered lost ground, or even surpassed Q2 2011 position. As such, a modest drop back or at least a pause would not be unlikely in the coming months, and a number of strategist have been communicating a mid to high digit drop in indices.
Jan 2012 mth:
Investor sentiment remained positive at the start of 2012. Sterling equities, credit and fixed income all advanced, with a very clear sector rotation into more cyclical names.
Bernanke’s comments about rates remaining where they are “through late 2014” implying potential negative real rates sparked a rally in risk assets, in particular gold, enabling it to recoup almost all the previous loss from the prior month.
The main focus of discussion has been the impact of the ECB's LTRO, as economic activity hinges on its performance. Draghi's replacement of Trichet at the ECB has alleviated immediate pressures on the financial system, with a rate cut and dressed up QE, giving stressed financial institutions a bit of time to their balance sheets in order, and giving politicians more time to address monetary and fiscal policy issues.
2011 year:
- US – Large cap names helped to draw increased attention from investors.
- UK & Europe - Concerns in Europe over substantial issuance, fiscal austerity and falling growth severely impacted returns.
- Emerging markets and Asia – weak (albeit outperforming 2010), in spite of continued growth outperformance, as investors focussed on tightening monetary policies in the face of elevated inflation.
