Our equity portfolio positions, and why:
The following does not constitute investment advice in any way shape, or form, it is merely a summary of the latest views of the Betting Bible journalist team.
Stock |
Long/Short |
Note |
BMW |
Long |
1 |
ITV |
Long |
1 |
WPP |
Long |
1 |
UBS v SocGen |
Long/Short |
2 |
Rio Tinto |
Long |
3 |
Marks & Spencer |
Short |
4 |
Sampo |
Long |
5 |
Renault |
Long |
6 |
Google v Facebook |
Long/Short |
7 |
1. GROWTH STOCKS – With European PER currently at 9.6x, we think the market long-term view is currently overly pessimistic, and we see no reason for a long-term PER of 15x. What does this mean for our investment picks? Not a short-term strategy, but we’ve looked for growth stocks that will, theoretically speaking, see a large multiple uplift as the market implicitly factors in a lower ERP. So we’re long: BMW, ITW, and WPP.
2. EUROPEAN INVESTMENT BANKS: Banks are sitting c25% below their April levels, and 9% above 2011 close, pre-LTRO. Whilst there is still political and legislative uncertainty, UBS is our best in class, with superior funding, strong capital position, and negligible exposure to soverign debt. SocGen’s exposure to potential term funding issues as a result of Eurozone concerns remains a liability. We’re long UBS, short SocGen.
3. RIO TINTO: Premier's 1H12showed y/y production growth across all four major producing regions: Vietnam, Indonesia, UKNS and Pakistan. With two additional producing wells being drilled and strong reservoir performance, there is a good possibility that a rate in the range of the current 36kboe/d rate is maintained for the rest of the year, which would add ~1kboe/d to our FY12E average group production.
4. M&S: In the UK, despite total M&S CFT sales of -5.7% in April, internet sales were up 16.5%. Thisnon-internet CFT growth was actually down -6.9%. The Internet sales shift impacting in-store profits is the crux of our short, even though we do appreciate the possibility of gross margin upside to come from better food buying and stocking systems, we still believe this will be offset by gross margin pressure in general merchandise as sales continue to shift away from stores
5. SAMPO: One of the best managed companies in Europe, averages a dividend yield of c6%+ (with growth upside) and trades at a 20% discount to Nordic peers. Sampo has outperformed the European insurance sector by c.900% over the last 12 years, and should be a core holding for any income fund. Target price: EUR24.00
6. Nissan stake and >5% dividend yield as providing meaningful valuation support over the medium term, and with the forward automotive EV/Sales multiple currently at trough levels -0.24x (historical range: -0.24x to +0.35x).
7. Google v Facebook. Not an exact hedge, but with an initial market cap of half of Google's, anyone who thinks Google is only worth twice as much as Facebook is mad, with Google earnings c15x Facebook's over the last year. In addition, we remember what Google did to Yahoo, and we don't think we've seen the best of Google circles yet.