GW10 Bets

See below, bets the stats like

 

•          Man U win @ 1.67
•          Sunderland win @ 2
•          Chelsea win @ 1.8
•          Man City win @ 1.73
•          Newcastle win @ 6.5
•          West Brom win @ 1.8

 

 

Comments on the stats:

•          I’m surprised the Fulham price is so unfavourable, esp with their home record, but that isn’t really taken into account, personally, I think there is value in the draw there too.
•          I suspect some of the teams are now being priced slightly differently based on how well they’re doing, e.g. West Ham and Swansea, so I think we should recalibrate the finishing positions. Can you go through the teams and reassess the finishing positions and send through?

 

 

Bookmaker price review

•          Pinnacle prices aren’t out yet, and I do like to wait for them normally unless something looks wild, but….
•          I think the Sunderland price will come in a bit too from 2s. Coral are the only ones with it that high, so I’d be keen to get something on that reasonably soon. I don’t think Villa have much game, they got battered by Norwich at home, and other than Australian guy that just runs about more than Wayne Rooney, I don’t see them creating much against an O’Neil.
•          Chelsea is another one that could move. Pretty big differences between Laddies (1.57) and Coral & Will Hill (1.8). We have it priced at 1.60, so I suspect the top price might drift down a bit. Torres will only have a game suspension and should be back, and Hazard and Mata look still look like the best players in the league.
•          Newcastle I agree will probably move out a bit, but the draw looks consistent across the bookies. Pinnacle do tend to have competitive away win prices though. I imagine you’ll only be going 10 on this though, so don’t mind nabbing the early price.
•          Brom, again only Corals, so happy to take that price now before it comes in, but suspect we’d still be able to get 1.73 for a few days.

 

 

Form

•          Your bag. I think QPR will pick up a few points now, they’re not as rubbish they seem. Arsenal too.
•          City look rubbish
•          Spurs look like they know how to win a game.
•          Brom still look like the best team in the league. That’s a joke, but they looked decent against Newcastle still, I’m looking forward to them finishing above Sunderland.

 

 

Home team	Manchester   United	Fulham	Norwich	Sunderland	Swansea	Tottenham   Hotspur	West Ham United	QPR	Liverpool	West Bromwich   Albion
Away team	Arsenal	Everton	Stoke City	Aston Villa	Chelsea	Wigan Athletic	Manchester City	Reading	Newcastle   United	Southampton
H from	1	9	17	9	12	5	12	15	5	9
H to	2	11	20	11	15	6	15	19	7	11
A from	3	5	12	16	1	16	1	16	8	16
A to	4	7	15	19	3	19	2	19	9	20
1/Home win%	1.29	3.30	3.26	1.74	6.00	1.44	8.80	1.98	1.83	1.63
1/Draw%	8.80	3.54	3.26	4.13	5.08	4.40	5.50	3.52	3.88	4.13
1/Away win%	8.80	2.41	2.59	5.50	1.57	12.57	1.42	4.76	5.08	6.88
H	1.67	2.75	2.60	2.00	5.50	1.50	5.10	1.95	1.62	1.80
D	4.00	3.40	3.40	3.50	3.80	4.60	4.00	3.60	4.00	3.80
A	5.50	2.63	2.75	4.20	1.80	8.00	1.73	4.33	6.50	5.00
	103.1%	103.8%	104.2%	102.4%	100.1%	100.9%	102.4%	102.2%	102.1%	101.9%
4.   Value calculator
	Manchester   United	Fulham	Norwich	Sunderland	Swansea	Tottenham   Hotspur	West Ham United	QPR	Liverpool	West Bromwich   Albion
	Arsenal	Everton	Stoke City	Aston Villa	Chelsea	Wigan Athletic	Manchester City	Reading	Newcastle   United	Southampton
H	(29.0)%	16.7%	20.2%	(15.2)%	8.3%	(4.0)%	42.0%	1.4%	11.6%	(10.2)%
D	54.5%	3.8%	(4.3)%	15.2%	25.2%	(4.5)%	27.3%	(2.3)%	(3.0)%	7.9%
A	37.5%	(8.9)%	(6.2)%	23.6%	(14.5)%	36.4%	(21.9)%	9.0%	(28.0)%	27.3%