GW35 Bets

GAME WEEK 35

betting-bible.com/football-betting
Syndicate target returns 25% vs Season to date returns 30%*

Key Bets Under Consideration**
Recommendations as a percentage of total bankroll

2.5%@>1.75 - Wig v Tot - Over 2.5 - 1.91@Coral
2.5%@>2 - Tot to beat WIG 2.2@WilliamHill
2.5%@>3 - NEW to beat Liv 3.23@Pinnacle
1.5%@>1.45 EVE to beat Ful 1.53@WilliamHill
1.5%@>2.25 - Che v Swa - Under 2.5 - 2.55@BetVictor
1%@>4.5 - Che v Swa DRAW 5.5@BetVictor
 

Anyway, back to the picks...

Wig v Tot
Wigan have conceded the most goals at home in the premier league this season and have the second worst home record, behind only Qpr. Spurs on the other hand have scored the 2nd most goals away from home (joint with Chelsea) behind only Man United. Whilst Wigan's performances in recent weeks have actually been better than their results, the return of Bale and the rest Spurs have been afforded following their European exit gives them an edge compared with recent weeks, which favours the Spurs win and over 2.5 goal bets particularly at the size of the prices currently on offer.

New v Liv
At the risk of sounding like a broken record...there's value in the Liverpool lay. Similar to the Spurs situation, the European exit increases Newcastles prospects this weekend, especially now they have a host of top players returning to fitness including BArfa and Coloccini. Combine this with the loss of Suarez for Liverpool, and it's almost the perfect scenario for the Newcastle win bet. What has been surprising is the lack of on impact the loss of Suarez has had over the 1X2 market despite the fact that he has scored over a third of all their premier league goals this season, which adds even further weight to the argument to opposing Liverpool for this game and the remainder of the season.

Che v Swa
Conversely to Spurs and Newcastle Chelsea remain competing in Europe, and whilst Rafa is the master of squad rotation their recent fixture congestion does not look to be fully factored into the 1X2 prices. Swansea on the other hand have already demonstrated they are capable of beating Chelsea in the League cup this season where their gameplan was very much to soak up Chelsea pressure and hit them on the counter attack. There is a strong likelihood they'll adopt the same approach today which plays well for both the draw and under 2.5 bet. Given the high variance associated with the pregame draw bet, we'd recommend taking profit in play at around the 75 minute mark.

* Returns as % of bankroll per season - read the Value Betting tutorial for more info. Includes 12% rtn on FPL top scorer betting
**All bets subject to review of price movements, team announcements and in play trading opportunities on gamedays. Please follow the Twitter account for game day news
 

GAME WEEK 35 - Midweek Multiples

betting-bible.com/football-betting
Syndicate target returns 25% vs Season to date returns 30%*
Recommendations as a percentage of total bankroll

Whilst in general value bettors steer clear of multiple bets because of the persistent hunt for optimal value on every individual bet, there are still incidents where a single bookmaker's pricing offers a high value accumulator. As such, this week and on an ad hoc basis going forward, we'll include a pick of the best value multiple/accumulator in addition to our usual weekly review of the EPL value picks with all the usual commentary....

BetVictor Goal Frenzy
0.4% -  Over 2.5 goals in:
Ars v Mnu; New v Liv; Wig v Tot
Effective odds: 5.7@BetVictor


PaddyPower 5 fold
0.1%
MCI to beat Whm
EVE to beat Ful
Sun to beat AVL
NEW to beat Liv
Tot to beat WIG
Effective odds: 44@PaddyPower
 

* Returns as % of bankroll per season - read the Value Betting tutorial for more info. Includes 12% rtn on FPL top scorer betting