GW31 Bets

GAME WEEK 31

betting-bible.com
Syndicate target returns 25% vs Season to date returns 40%*

Key Bets Under Consideration**
Recommendations as a percentage of total bankroll

Pre-match passive bets (ie no in-play trade required)
1.5%@>1.65 Ful v Qpr - BTTS - 1.75@BetVictor
1.5%@1.9 Ful v Qpr Over 2.5 gls - 2@Pinnacle
3%@>1.6 Avl v Liv - BTTS - 1.7@Ladbrokes
2%@>1.75 Eve v Sto - Under 2.5 gls - 1.8@Bet365

High Variance Picks
1.5%@ >3.8 Eve v Sto - Draw 4@Bet365
1%@>3.45 Wig v Nor - Draw 3.62@Pinnacle
1%@>4.8 Avl to beat Liv 5.4@BetVictor

After a frustrating International break EPL is back!

Fulham v Qpr
The Monday night fixture, and like all of their remaining fixtures, a game that Qpr need to take something from. Harry's tactics/starting line-ups in the past 3/4 games have shown a considerable change in approach from a team playing without an out and out goals scorer to stop teams from being able to score so freely against them, to a team playing with 2 out and out goals scorers in Zamora and Remy, and full backs like Bosingwa starting, who is more useful going forward than he is defensively.
If the line-up is consistent with team selections in recent weeks, we expect Qpr to be able to score against a Fulham team who no longer have much to play for this season, given that they are effectively safe and too far behind the European places. The Fulham line-up going forward at present remains at full strength, and given the way we expect Qpr to play, the game should be open enough for them to score, which facilitates both the BTTS and the Over 2.5 goal bets.

Aston Villa v Liverpool
The Sunday game, and another team that need to take something from the match which plays well for the goal and BTTS score bets. It is difficult to foresee Liverpool's attacking players not being able to score against the Villa youngsters, and if Villa go behind they have to throw everything they have at Liverpool, who have not been convincing defensively all season. As usual, opposing Liverpool in some way shape or form equally has value during this match, and the Liverpool lay has remained the most profitable 1X2 bet for an individual team this season, although remember it's a higher variance pick.

Everton v Stoke
A surprisingly high price on the draw given that these 2 teams have drawn a total of 24 games between them this season. There has been some inwards drift on the price from over 4.15 earlier in the week, however at 4, there is still plenty of value, and providing Everton don't get an early goal, this could trade very well in play, as the price could more than halve before the end of the first half. In addition, we've included the under 2.5 goals pick. Everton will be without both Fellani and Pienaar, who between them have scored over a third of Everton's goals this season, and Stoke have Huth returning in defence, so on the face of it does appear to be setup for a 0-0/1-1 outcome.

Wigan v Norwich
Possibly one to avoid if you're not going to trade in play, as the scoreline has the potential to swing between the teams over the 90 minutes given Wigan's generally unpredicability and that neither team are safe from relegation. However, given Norwich's draw propensity this season, and Wigan's poor home form, draw prices over 3.5 for this sort of fixture should generate a long-term return.

 

* Returns as % of bankroll per season - read the Value Betting tutorial for more info. Includes 12% rtn on FPL top scorer betting
**All bets subject to review of price movements, team announcements and in play trading opportunities on gamedays. Please follow the Twitter account for game day news