GW4 Top Picks

2% SOU v Whm BTNTS - 2@StanJames
1.5% Che to beat EVE - 2.35@188Bet
1% SWA to beat Liv - 3.5@Ladbrokes
0.5% STO to beat MCI - 6.1@Marathon

Sat 14th Sep - EVE v Che
A game where the 1X2 price difference between this year and last is the most significant, however various factors influenced the price that day, and the drop in Chelsea win price appears fully justified.

Everton have lost a significant key player in Fellani, and whilst their replacements appear to be reasonable business for the long-term, if Barry lacks match sharpness there isn't a worse team to play against without a natural holding midfield player than Chelsea given their plethora of number 10s and creativity centrally in the final third of the pitch, not to mention Lampard's propensity to arrive late into attacking situations.

Sat 14th Sep - STO v Mci
A high variance pick. The Stoke win price is bigger than last season's in spite of the fact that Stoke already look an improved side under Hughes, and City are without captain Kompany and potentially David Silva to provide the necessary flair to unlock the tight and organised defensive unit that Stoke possess. Not a pick for those looking for frequent outright wins, however there is clear value evident in the home win price above 6, and it can be closed out in play for reasonable profits if Stoke are able to go a goal up at any point in the game.

Sun 15th Sep - SOU v Whm
Tomorrow's game, and whilst West Ham may potentially have Petric available as a replacement for Maiga, if the latter continues to start the their goal threat, particularly away from home, continues to look even weaker than last season, where they only managed 11 goals away from home. The bookmakers all started at prices around 2 for the BTNTS pick but quickly drifted in, however StanJames are the only highstreet bookmaker left offering the inflated price.

Mon 16th Sep - SWA v Liv
A typical opposition of Liverpool based on their mispricing relative to comparable peers and team characteristics, and their apparent strong start to the season has hopefully helped this continue. The Liverpool win price has unusually drifted out since initial prices were posted, likely as a result of the expected unavailability of Sturridge. However, Friday's press conferences implied Sturridge would in fact be fit for the game, so timing wise we expect the Swansea win price to drift back out up to kick off, and as such execution of bets should be delayed until then.
 

*All bets subject to review of price movements, team announcements and in play trading opportunities on gamedays. Gameday news may be shared via Twitter account.