Top Picks Under Consideration*
Recommendations as a percentage of total bankroll
2% WBA v Swa - Under2.5 goals -
2.5% Ars v Tot - BTTS - 1.6@BetVictor
High variance/In play trade picks
1.5% WBA to beat Swa - 2.7@Bet365
1.5% Mnu to beat LIV - 3@Coral
1.5% NOR to beat Sou - 3@Bet365
1% Ars v Tot - Draw - 3.7@Pinnacle
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Sat 31st Aug - NOR v Sou
Our only pick for the Saturday games, and it's in the high variance category so we'll likely be adjusting our position in play. The pick is motivated by the fact that the Norwich win price at 3s (and drifting) is very high relative to their win rate at Carrow road against teams of a similar stature to Southampton, particularly when you consider that the same game last season (which finished 0-0) had Norwich priced at 2.5.
Both teams have significantly strengthened their squads and starting XIs since last season, however Southampton appear to have started the season being priced like a team finishing on >50 points which seems slightly premature in spite of their quality signings. Additionally, Norwich have also signed some high profile attacking players to complement their ability to keep stop other teams from scoring (particularly at home), and with Bassong returning from injury midweek there is no obvious weakness in the Norwich side to support such a high home win price.
Sun 1st Sep - WBA v Swa
Whilst it is very early in the season for fixture congestion fatigue to have a significant impact on the outcome of matches, it is still worth being aware that West Brom were able to rest several first team players in their midweek cup win against Newport this week, whereas Swansea, who were essentially already through, still opted to field several first team regulars on their trip to Romania.
West Brom's failure to score in their first 2 premier league fixtures could set this tone of the game as with a lack of fire power, their focus shifts to ensuring Swansea do not score so that the game can be settled by the odd goal, which plays into the hands of the Under 2.5 goal bet.
Sun 1st Sep - LIV v Mnu
United were priced at 2.65 for the same fixture last season where they were victorious without Rooney or Vidic available, albeit following a sending off for Jonjo Shelvey. Liverpool in the meantime have strengthened their squad, however it remains debatable whether they are better side without Suarez available, and the United win price continues to look overly discounted following the exit of Ferguson.
Sun 1st Sep - ARS v Tot
A combination of two teams being very capable of scoring and neither team wanting to lose the match lends itself well to goals - consistent to what we've seen in previous seasons for these fixtures, however prices need to stay above 1.5 to represent true value on the BTTS bet.
The draw price has been moving around all week with prices initially over 3.75, however prices above 3.4 remain value picks according to our in-house pricing, in particular for those looking to trade out in play in the latter parts of the game.
*All bets subject to review of price movements, team announcements and in play trading opportunities on gamedays. Gameday news may be shared via Twitter account.