Key Player - Crouch
Key Player - Bale
Key Player - Walcott
All odds are stated in decimals, and stake sizes recommended are a percentage of your overall bankroll (if £1k bankroll, you’ll generally be placing bets between £10-£50 per game).
Note - Value betting is a long-term strategy that takes advantage of mismatches between the statistical likelihood of an event occurring versus the bookmaker prices available. As such, bankroll and stake sizing are a critical component of a value betting strategy in order to handle to volatility in the performance of bets.
Value Betting Philosophy
Quick reminder on the fundamental philosophy of a value betting strategy: we identify bets where the price doesn't reflect our modelled likelihood of the event occurring. This means that our picks do not necessarily reflect what we think will actually happen in that specific game, but that if you are placing bets over a high enough volume of games, you will net a positive return.
To illustrate this with a basic example, the Man United win price is generally very well priced when they're playing teams outside of the top 6. The current price of 1.22 for United versus Sunderland is exactly the same as our modelled price. Therefore we do not perceive there to be any value in the bet, as we agree that over 80% of the time it's a winning bet, but around 1 in 5 times it's a loser, so long-term, there is no expected return.
The Sunderland draw event though, IF we believe it occurs ~16% of the time (odds of ~6.25), even though we expect the Man United win to come in, the draw price which is currently floating around 7.5 , and therefore represents a value bet. If we continue to identify bets with this level of value, over a large enough volume of bets, we expect to generate a positive long term return.
(Note - This example is for illustrative purposes only, we're not recommending the Draw bet for this game).
In general, because the market money tends to favour either a home or away win, the draw price generally drifts right up until kick off, and therefore delaying the placement of draw bets until as close to kick off as possible can help you maximise your returns. In addition, it gives you the opportunity to receive any of our team news considerations via Twitter. As mentioned in the GW 16 performance review though, the draw picks do have a high variance, and therefore, similar to being able to handle bad beats in poker, handling the variance in returns is a critical part to a football value betting strategy. Do not be too phased by losing weeks, and equally do not get carried away with weeks of exceptional returns. However, if you are looking to reduce the volatility in your returns, the GW16 performance review discussed some of the options available to you, and a tutorial will be put up on the site in due course.
Liv v Avl
The Liverpool win bet appears to be the most underpriced bet so far this season. Whether it is historic stats or significant money from the Asian bookmaker markets influencing the price, it is unclear, however the Liverpool win price does tend to drift in even further by KO. Their win over West Ham last weekend in spite of being the inferior team for the majority of the game should ensure the drift does take place, and we're currently toying with either a straight Liverpool lay or the draw bet, however we expect the draw price to drift as high as 5.5 by KO which is making us lean towards the straight draw bet at present.
In terms of team news, Villa did play away in the week, however sufficient players were rested for the squad to be fresh enough to make the draw value still evident. Liverpool on the other hand will welcome back Suarez which brings the value in the draw bet down slightly, but not enough for us to reconsider the bet.
Sto v Eve
We've been monitoring this price all week, with Stoke touching 3.41 yesterday, but coming back into 3.18 by today. We do expect some late drift back out closer to game time, as the big money changes hands, however it's a bet that jumped out at us as soon as we saw the early prices. Stoke are actually the only team where the draw bet seems reasonably well priced, as everyone seems to think all they do is draw games. Whilst it is true that they have a higher draw frequency than a lot of other teams, the reality is that there is high variance in their results, which will present a lot of betting opportunities, particularly on the win side of the bet.
In terms of team news, the Everton starting XI is almost back to full strength, with the exception of Phil Neville, however Everton have been very slow starters in games this season, therefore the bet should trade well in play for those looking to take early profits. Stoke on the other hand should be welcoming back Crouch, who is key to our perceived value in the Win bet, so one we will be monitoring until the team news is announced.
Key player watch - Crouch.
Swa v Tot
Definitely one to wait for the team news on, with the fitness of Bale of particular interest. Swansea have been without Leon Britton recently, who is a key player consideration for us, and there is value evident in both the Spurs win and draw bet at the moment. AVB has shown that he is happy to try Adebayor and Defoe up top together in a 4-4-2 more than once this season, given the hot streak Defoe is on, and this does make them a bigger goal threat than his more typical 4-2-3-1, so there really is a reasonable amount of selection news we'll be interested to hear before we make any final decisions, so monitor Twitter on this one.
Key player watch- Bale.
Wba v Whm
The pick of the week. Our stake could rise to 4% on this one. West Ham look set to be without Diame and Carroll, and West Brom's perceived 'bad form' looks to be overhyped in the prices. Whilst not particularly convincing against Arsenal, 2 penalty decisions that could have not been given show that Brom are not easily broken down, and they'll be looking to get back to winning ways, so a depleted West Ham team will an ideal opportunity. Clarke has already made an unusual team selection though that led to us pulling a West Brom bet earlier in the season, so we'll be monitoring closely, although we're not expecting anything too controversial this time, as there is no real rotation/fatigue issues to consider this time around.
Rea v Ars
Most likely an in-play bet from us, as both these teams fit into our in-play criteria in that they consistently turn games upside down, evidenced by the game between the two in the League cup earlier in the season. We're generally backers of Arsenal with Arteta and Walcott fit, so we will be sweating on the fitness of Walcott, however without him, the draw bet is very attractive, as without Theo, Arsenal have shown that they lack pace and clinicalness that historically made them such as potent force.
Key player watch - Walcott.
GAME WEEK 16 Performance Review
Eve v Tot - DRAW 3% @ >3.3
Whm v Liv - WHM 3% @ >3.0
Swa v Nor - DRAW 2% @ >3.5
Sou v Rea - DRAW 2% @ >3.5
Sou v Read - SOU 3% @ > 1.95
Ful v New - FUL 2% @ > 1.90
Eve draw (3.0)%
Whm win 2.3%
Swa draw (2.0)%
Sou draw (1.5)%
Ful win 2.1%
Mnu win/0-0 0.0%
Wk 16 (2.1)%
Wk 15 (4.4)%
Previous wks 43.0%
Season to date 36.5%
|Bet||Stake & Price||West Ham Win rtns||West Ham Lose rtns|
|Back West Ham Win||£100 @ 3.0||£200||(£100)|
|Lay West Ham Win||£200 @ 1.5||(£100)||£200|