GW21 PICK STATS PDF
A notably rough patch in terms of betting returns with total return to date falling over the past 7 weeks from over 45% to 21%, so as usual a reminder at times like this that betting on football is a high variance event, and over the course of a season we expect to both to lose a number of bets and to make game week losses and along the way.
We expect to lose a number of bets particularly where we are backing the outsider in these events, as we're generally identifying situations where we believe there to be around 5% value in the prices on offer. Over a large enough sample of bets, this edge will become evident, however over individual gameweeks, returns are subject to the natural variance inherent within making 'betting' decisions based on probabilities (more on this below). Additionally, as the likelihood of the event decreases, there is an even greater chance of losing bets. We'll use one of our favourites, the Liverpool lay in the upcoming Sunderland game, as an example:
The Liverpool win price is currently 1.44, which implies that Liverpool win the game 69.4% of times. If we believe that Liverpool only win this game below 65% of the time (which we do), then we believe that there is value in laying Liverpool to win at a price of up to 1.53. This doesn't mean we expect Liverpool not to win, ironically we do expect Livpool to win, we're saying that the lay price has value. It's a logic that feels counter intuitive initially, and over a single bet, arguably it is. However over the long-term, over a large volume of bets, because the true statistical likelihood of the event is greater than the statistical likelihood implied within the price, betting returns should be positive. As such, a value betting strategy requires bets over a significant sample size for the returns to become evident.
Once you make a commitment to such a strategy, it requires patience, and discipline, over both the highs and lows. So when you win all your bets in a given week, you need to stay grounded, stick to your stake sizing rules, and remember that you're not invicible - it's just variance. Equally, when you lose all your bets in a given week, you need to keep your head up, stick to your stake sizing rules, and remember that the whole world isn't against you - it's just variance.*
The Betting Bible syndicate takes positions based on a combination of historic statistical information, head to head information, and qualitative information regarding recent matches, starting line-ups, and formations. The information contained within these emails is to be used at your own peril, however we attempt to be as transparent as possible regarding the positions taken on by the syndicate so that if you choose to, you can replicate the syndicate bets.
This week, and going forward, we've included as an attachment some implied prices for games based on the historic outcomes of games between similar teams over the past 15 premier league seasons to give you an indication of just one of the pricing tools we use to help select bets we believe to contain value.
Given time constraints, we've not put together commentary on the specific games, however we'll continue to make you aware of the Syndicate positions via Twitter tomorrow.
*Note, we're by no means encouraging gambling here, these comments are purely in reference to phases you may go through during a value betting strategy. If you feel your gambling has become under control, first and foremost, stop and take a breather, and seek help at sites such as gamcare.