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GW13 Bets

 Game Bet & PriceStake Size*Best Price
Wig v Rea Draw @ 3.67 2.5% Pinnacle
Swa v Liv Swa @ 3.57 2% Pinnacle
 Sou v New  Draw @ 3.59  1.5% Pinnacle
 Sun v Wba  Sun @ 2.5 2% Wiliam Hill
 Che v Mci  Mci @ 2.9 1% Stan James

 

Lots of price movements over the past couple of days, so some of the original picks no longer available at the prices we'd recommend, which means stake size suggestions have moved around a little.

The only bet that has been adjusted for team news is the Newcastle bet, as Thursday night saw both Ben Arfa and Cisse withdrawn through injury, and Coloccini is serving his last game in a 3 match suspension, which makes the Newcastle starting XI a relative unknown quantity. We still perceive a bit of value in the draw, and arguably the lost players make it more likely that Pardew will go out with the plan not lose the game, however stake size has been reduced to reflect the weakening in their goal threat.

The City win bet we have left up, although we're stil awaiting full team news before the syndicate takes a position. For transparency, we've included this week's running syndicate positions at present. Note, differences can occur to the recommended bets as the syndicate decision making is ongoing throughout the course of the weekend.



Syndicate latest positions

 Game Bet & PriceStake Size*Best Price
Wig v Rea Draw @ 3.76 2% Pinnacle
Swa v Liv Swa @ 3.75 3% Pinnacle
 Sou v New  Draw @ 3.59  1.5% Pinnacle
 Sun v Wba  Sun @ 2.5 2% Wiliam Hill
Avl v Ars^ Draw @ 4.19 0.75% Pinnacle
 Mnu v QPR^  Lay Mnu @ 1.2 0.2% Betfair

^ Small positions with a view to trade in play. Not included in tips as timing of exit from bets is critical to performance

* Note - Betting Bible does not recommend adopting a value betting strategy without fully understanding staking, and value strategies in general. Please vist the Betting Bible site to read more.
Three really good value bets out there this week in the Wig, Swa, and Sou games, as harmony returns to the Betting Bible bet selectors following last week's mutiny.
  • NAP - Wigan draw @ 3.91 - with Pinnacle Sports. Massive price. Take anything above 3.6 on this.
  • NB - Swansea Win @ 3.6 (3.75 at the start of the week but wiped as soon as the BB syndicate made a 3% stake size move). Don't take anything below 3.5.
The top 4 picks above are very stable value picks.

The Wigan v Reading  3.91 draw price is a monster, in fact, I wouldn't be surprised if it has gone by the time you get to read this, but anything above 3.6 is still great value. Wigan have drawn 2 from 6 at home this year, and Reading 6 from 11 in total, becoming this season's draw specialists, and whilst Reading still look like conceding in every game, they are well set up to score in games, particularly from set pieces. We've done a lot of analysis on the bottom third team games, and the draw price is regularly looking like good value.

The Swansea win pick will surprise some punters, but the value is evident, even though we've scalped the big 3.75 price before everyone else. Swansea are in good form having beaten an albeit understrength Newcaslte side at St James', and held their own against some of the Premier league big guns. Liverpool do appear to have picked up some form recently, but some players will be involved in the midweek European game and away from home at the weekend, at anything above 3.5 (decimal odds) we like the home win.

Southampton v Newcastle, with Cabaye out for Newcastle the price has been drifting all week, but the return of Coloccini and Tiote seems to have gone unnoticed. We're expecting this to sure up the Newcastle defence, and Pardew will want to make sure his team don't lose this week to stop a run of bad results, so at 3.6 there's value in the draw price.

Sunderland v West Brom seems to go against the current run of form, with West Brom currently flying in the league. However the result against Chelsea is arguably misleading, as it wasn't a full strength Chelsea side for 90 minutes, and equally, Sunderland's current league position is slightly misleading, and Sessegnon seems to have finally woken up and realised he's living in Sunderland, so we like the value in this home price. It is still drifting out though, so maybe worth holding out until matchday to put this one on.

The Chelsea v City game represents the only unstable pick we've currently gone for, however hold out for the team news. Exposure to the City win was available earlier in the week at 2.9, and a lot has obviously happened since then. In our view, the Chelsea win was actually more likely under Di Matteo, as he'd have played with a front 4, however Benitez in general is a lot more defensive, and it wouldn't be a surprise if he played with 2 holding midfield players so that he doesn't lose his first game. Alternatively, on an interim contract, he has nothing to lose, so he could just go for it! Either way, we'll be waiting to hear the team news before we make a final decision on this one, particularly in the light of lessons learned last week (see below).

* Note - Betting Bible does not recommend adopting a value betting strategy without fully understanding staking, and value strategies in general. Please vist the Betting Bible site to read more.

Performance Review to date
Last Week's TipsStake*PriceRtn*
Arsenal Win 2.0% 2.00 2.0%
Arsenal Draw 1.0% 3.80 (1.0)%
Liverpool Draw 1.5% 4.61 (1.5)%
Newcastle Win 2.0% 2.05 (2.0)%
Qpr Win 1.0% 2.00 (1.0)%
Qpr Draw 1.0% 3.70 (1.0)%
Reading Win 1.0% 4.56 3.6%
Reading Draw 1.0% 3.94 (1.0)%
Fulham Win 1.5% 1.75 (1.5)%
Fulham 0-0 0.1% 13.00 (0.1)%
Fulham 0-1 0.1% 15.00 (0.1)%
West Ham win 1.5% 2.09 (1.5)%
West Ham 0-0 0.1% 11.00 (0.1)%
West Ham 0-1 0.1% 11.50 (0.1)%
Total last wk (5.3)%
wk -1 22.5%
wk -2 14.3%
Prior wks 12.0%
Total rtn to date 43.5%

 

*As a percentage of total bankroll. Please read the Value bettting - Staking considerations on the Betting Bible site for more information on bankroll and staking. It is an integral part of a value betting strategy.
 

Our first losing week this season, and given the lack of agreement amongst the selectors, unsurprising in many ways. In addition, we're expecting to have losing weeks, as this is a value strategy, and serves as a good reminder to our punters why it is very important to stick to our stake size suggestions, in order to be able to handle statistical variances.

It's also worth noting, that following considerable disagreements amongst the Betting Bible selectors, the actual Syndicate bets on Fulham and West Ham were pulled, saving the syndicate 3.4%, but given that we had already tipped these, we've left them in the performance review. Going forward, we'll stick a comparison of the Syndicate returns versus the Tipped returns on the site, so you can see what a difference our premium service can offer.

One key learning point  from last week though was the team news announcements. The Newcastle team excluded 4 first team regulars, including Cabaye, Gutierez, and Cisse, and the Win bet was no longer the value we originally priced, but we were unable to get this message across to the punters. In addition, the Chelsea starting line-up was considerably weakened, in particular without the puppet master Juan Mata, and we've been waiting for an opportunity to back against Chelsea without Mata, and missed that pick. As such, we'll follow up this email with our final selection on Saturday morning once more team news is available.

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