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GW15 Bets

 Game BetOur pricePriceWhere?Stake Size*Key Player watch
Ars v Swa Ars 1.35 1.50 BetVictor 5% Walcott
Wba v Sto  Wba 1.95 2.14 Pinnacle 2%
Ful v Tot Ful 2.90 3.10 PaddyPower 2% Berbatov
Mci v Eve Mci 1.50 1.57 William Hill 4%
Mci v Eve Draw 4.00 4.46 Pinnacle 1%
Liv v Sou Draw 4.40 5.05 Pinnacle 1%
Rea v Mnu Mnu 1.35 1.47 Pinnacle 5%

 

* Note - Betting Bible does not recommend adopting a value betting strategy without fully understanding staking, and value strategies in general. Please vist the Betting Bible site to read more. Any questions, please email  This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Usual reminder on the staking. The size of the percentage stake reflects a combination of how much value is in the price, but also how likely the event will occur. As such, for the shorter priced bets, such as top teams to win, or the home win, you'll generally see a range of 2.5% to 5%. The draw bets, or outsider bets, you'll generally see a range of 1% to 2.5%.

We've included our price as a guide this week, as we're aware that price movements can take place between you receiving the email and placing the bets. Our tips are based on situations where we believe the available price is ~10% better than the true likelihood of the event occuring, so keep this in mind when you're placing this week's bets if the price has moved unfavourably

Also, following some feedback from Mike Sharkey, who was clearly unhappy after the ACL knee bandage dig, we'll set up a standard time for the emails to go out in future weeks, however it will be useful to get an idea from the rest of you what times and days you'd prefer, as well as any other general feedback/suggestions you have. In the absence of a response, the proposed emails going forward will be: Fri 3pm, Sat 11am, Sun 11am. In addition, we're planning on updating you with gameday decisions based on starting line-ups via our Twitter posts, so make sure you follow us (links at the end of this email), to avoid missing out.

Back to the picks..
Ars v Swa - Bread and butter top 4 team home win. There is traditionally value in these picks, because the bookmaker prices are influenced by the market betting behaviour, and because the price offered seems small, it doesn't sufficiently get backed in, so an easy value bet. The value in the bet is contingent upon Theo playing, so if he's unavailable, we'll turn into a straight Swansea lay.

Wba v Sto - Top 12 teams at home also traditionally have value, and West Brom have now made a sufficient case to imply they're a top 12 team this season, in spite of their mid-week loss at Swansea. There's disagreement within the Syndicate about this bet, given that Stoke will set up not to get beaten away from home most games, however this is reflected in the price in my view, and therefore still worth exposure to, just at a reduced stake size.

Ful v Tot - As per the West Brom bet, traditional value in the Top 12 teams at home. A lot of reliance on Berbatov in the Fulham team though, so be prepared to lay your bet completely if Berbatov suddenly is unavailable. We're not expecting this to be the case though.

City v Everton - Big price available today on the City bet, although we may have moved it, as we've already taken our 5% exposure earlier today. Mancini has described next week's European game as 'must win' to enable City to compete in the Europa league (again) this year. How true this statement is, we're unsure, but if he leaves out too many of the core players: Kompany, Yaya, Silva, Tevez, and Aguero, be prepared to reduce your exposure to the win bet via a lay on betfair. We'll update you with our final decisions on this game via Twitter over the weekend.

Liverpool v Sou - Not our typical value bet, but a huge price on the draw, and Liverpool have been very inconsistent, home and away, all season, and Southampton have shown they can score goals against anybody in this league, so it is likely to trade well in play. In general, on the bigger priced lay bets we tip, if you prefer you can opt to lay the draw in play at a much lower price to take a smaller profit, rather than experiencing such volatile returns. Email in if you need more information on how to do this.

Reading v United - As per mid-week, we will be trading this in play to take this bigger price. Obviously this didn't happen mid-week, as Van Persie scored in the first minute, however away from home, against a relegation threatened side, we expect a much tighter game in the opening 30 minutes. In addition, to this, we'll be doing something slightly more creative with the 0-0, by taking the pre-game price and laying in play at 30 minutes.

If you haven't heard us harp on about the 0-0 bet already, it is a consistently mispriced score line for almost all teams (ironically except for Stoke) that provides plenty of value each week, and you can expect to hear more over the coming weeks about picking opportunities to place this bet.

Tips GW14 Performance
Last Week's TipsStake*PriceRtn*
Avl Win 2.5% 2.0 2.5%
Che Win 5.0% 1.5 (5.0)%
Eve Draw 2.5% 3.6 6.5%
Tot Draw 2.5% 3.54 (2.5)%
Mci Win 4.0% 1.57 2.3%
Total GW14 3.8%
GW13 (9.0)%
Previous GWs 43.2%
Aggregate Season to date 38.0%

 

*As a percentage of total bankroll.

Please read the Value bettting - Staking considerations on the Betting Bible site for more information on bankroll and staking. It is an integral part of a value betting strategy.


To maximise your value betting returns, please remember to sign-up to the following bookmakers via the links in this email.
Syndicate GW14 Performance
Last Week's TipsStake*Effective PriceRtn*
Che Win 5.0% 1.50 (5.0)%
Eve Draw 2.0% 3.60 5.2%
Tot Draw 2.5% 3.54 (2.5)%
Sou Draw 1.0% 3.70 2.7%
Sto Win 1.0% 2.2 1.2%
Mci Win 2.0% 1.57 1.4%
Total GW14 3.0%
GW13 rtn (3.3)%
Previous GWs 42.7%
Season rtn 43.0%

 
*As a percentage of total bankroll.

Note - Differences occur between Tipped bets and Syndicate returns given the volatility of prices offered throughout the week, as well as gameday and in-play trading decisions made by the Betting Bible syndicate bet selectors.


Tips performance
A return to the green following a couple of tough weeks. All I'll really say on this, is that 3.8% should have been the minimum return you earned this week, as if I haven't made myself clear before, if Mata isn't playing, we do not like the Chelsea bet! If a team selection like that happens, you reduce exposure, by either laying your original bet, or coverring the draw.
Syndicate performance
In spite of what I say to the left, the Buzzman, given free reign of the gameday Syndicate bets completely ignored protocol, and compromised the end of season Nobu dinner budget.

The Stoke and Southampton bets were latecomers, as the prices drifted significantly before KO.

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