GAME WEEK 37
Syndicate target returns 25% vs Season to date returns 30%*
Top Picks Under Consideration**
Recommendations as a percentage of total bankroll
Low variance top pick
3%@>1.65 - Ful v Liv - Over 2.5 - 1.73@BetVictor
High variance/In-play close out top pice
2%@> Liv lay via 1% Ful win 3.9@Bet365 & 1% Draw 3.6@Bet365
FA Cup offers
BetVictor - Money back on selected bets if Wigan lift the cup
+ Zableta to get booked any time @ 4.5
New site to check out...
As we enter the penultimate week of the season, the headlines have been dominated by news of Fergie's retirement announcement. Aside from the obvious implications, it will be interesting to see how Manchester United are impacted from a betting perspective. Blind backing Manchester United at home in the Premier league since the 2000/01 season has generated an average return of ~7% per game. In value betting terms, ignoring inflation, this equates to return on capital when using stakes of 5% of bankroll per game of ~87% over the period. On top of this, the United swing bet when they go a goal behind has been a considerable source of income for in play traders throughout Fergie's reign, so how such profitable will be without the likes of the trademark hairdryer treatment and 'Fergie' time will be fascinating to observe.
In the meantime though.....
Ful v Liv
Priced as a ~57% event in spite of the fact that nearly 70% and 80% Fulham and Liverpool's home and away games respectively have finished over 2.5 goals this season. Whilst Liverpool are without Luis Suarez and now Steven Gerrard, their goal threat hasn't been significantly subdued with Sturridge leading the line and Coutinho providing the creative flair. In terms of the 1X2 bet, Fulham are in what looks like a slump in form, however as usual, the Liverpool win bet looks a misprice at 2.1, given their inconsistency throughout the past 2 seasons, combined with the fact that are without 2 key players. The true Liverpool price for a game against teams within Fulham's range is much closer to 2.5, meaning that a straight Liverpool lay at implied odds of over 1.9 or Fulham win bet 3.9 will pay long-term dividends.
FA Cup special
We rarely mention weekly bookmaker offers given that they're generally capped at maximum bets between £10 and £50, but since it's the FA cup final we'll give BetVictor a mention. The offer is capped at £50 and only available on first scorer, correct score or man of the match bets. Although there is only a 15-20% chance that Wigan will lift the cup, BetVictor have been the best priced correct score bookmaker all season, so this does mean you can cover a correct score bet on the City win with some free cover which is better than the bookmaker overround. In addition, bookmakers have slashed odds and in many cases suspended markets on Pellegrini taking over as City manager next season, which has the potential to slightly disrupt Mancini's preparations for the final.
BetVictor are also offering plenty of novelty markets on today's game based on the official Opta stats, such as player with the most tackles and player with the most shots. One market that has taken our eye is the Zabletta to get booked at any time price at 4.5. According to Opta, Zabletta has one of the highest tackle rates in the whole of the premier league, and his career booking stats illustrate that he gets booked once in every 3 games, giving implied odds of closer to 4.3. Today, he could be up against Maloney and McManaman who represent a good combination of quick feet and pace to cause Zabletta to commit a bookable offence.
Outside of straight football bets, we've turned our attention recently to a new weekly fantasy football cash game at www.playon.co.uk
The site enables you to challenge players one to one (including site ambassadors Robbie Fowler, Les Ferdinand, and Julian Dicks) or join multi-player games, and includes a guaranteed £1000 game. Obviously there are only 2 game weeks left this season and it does lack volume of players at present; however the simple format and originality of the game, combined with the unparalleled live experience will inevitably make this game more popular in the 13/14 season. As such it does represent an opportunity to take advantage of 'fish' type money as in the early days of online poker, so it's worth taking a look at now.
* Returns as % of bankroll per season - read the Value Betting tutorial for more info. Includes 12% rtn on FPL top scorer betting
**All bets subject to review of price movements, team announcements and in play trading opportunities on gamedays. Please follow the Twitter account for game day news