Syndicate target returns 25% vs Season to date returns 20%*
GW22 Top Value Pick
Sunday, 1:30pm MAN UTD to beat Liverpool
5% @>1.85 current best price: 1.96@Pinnacle
GW22 Book vs Historic Stats - Here we've included a comparison of the historic outcome of games between teams with similar characteristics over the past 15 seasons versus the best bookmaker prices available. The key within the file explains how you can use the information, however essentially it just compares the implied frequency of the win/lose/draw event happening in each game versus the frequency of historic outcomes. Whilst we have a variety in-house methods for pricing the games, we've included this historic data to help give you a feel for the value within some of the prices on offer. Evidently, this information was included in last week's email, but no one looked at it, so as usual we welcome feedback on its usefulness.
GW22 NAP - MAN UTD to beat Liverpool
Our strongest value pick of the week. As you know, we feel Liverpool are the most mis-priced team in the league at the moment and although their recent form has improved, our in-house pricing analysis as well as the historic outcome stats price the league leaders win bet comfortably under 1.8.
With minimal injury/player selection news for both teams, this is a relatively stable pick, however as usual, the price has been drifting in Liverpool's favour all week, moving from 1.8 all the way to as high as 1.99, so don't be surprised if there's further drift available up to kick off. For United, Rooney is still on the sidelines but Hernandez has come in and looked very sharp. More importantly though, Enrique still isn't fit for Liverpool, which means we expect young Andre Wisdom to continue to deputise at left-back. The youngster has done well when he has filled in previously but this is a whole new proposition for him and we expect Ferguson to target the left side of the Liverpool defence early with the power of Valencia and Rafael bombing on from full-back.
Previously, with United's below par defending but explosive attack, we have predominantly advocated an in-play value strategy of backing United to win if they go behind in the first half, but given that we expect them to start very quickly on Sunday, and their renewed solidity with Vidic in the team, we recommend taking the value in the pre-game price.
As in previous weeks, we'll keep you updated on Syndicate positions on all of this week's games via Twitter once we've heard more on Team news and late price movements, however the January transfers and return of key players from injury should provide useful value betting opportunities and will be influencing our selections over the forthcoming weeks.
In other news, the Tennis Australian Open starts on Monday and as you'll be aware, the price volatlity and market liquidity within Tennis matches provide some of the most attractive in-play betting opportunities in a calendar year. Whilst the in-play odds offered on Betfair are consistently the most competitive on this market, it's still worth opening up a Bet365 account to take advantage of their Live TV coverage of the event.
* Returns as % of bankroll per season - read the Value Betting tutorial for more info