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GW16 Bets

Eve v Tot - DRAW 3% @ >3.3 This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
 
Whm v Liv - WHM 3% @ >3.0 This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.  Key Player watch - Diame

Swa v Nor - DRAW 2% @ >3.5 Pinnacle@3.8 Key Player watch - Tettey & Bassong

Sou v Rea - DRAW 2% @ 3.5 This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Sou v Read - SOU 3% @ > 1.95 This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Ful v New - FUL 2% @ > 1.9 This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.  Key Player watch - Berbatov
 

All odds are stated in decimals, and stake sizes recommended are a percentage of your overall bankroll (if £1k bankroll, you’ll generally be placing bets between £10-£50 per game).

Note - Value betting is a long-term strategy, that takes advantage of mismatches between the statistical likelihood of an event occurring and the bookmaker prices available. As such, bankroll and stake sizing are a critical component of a value betting strategy in order to handle to volatility in the performance of bets.

Syndicate target returns = 25%*
Season to date returns = 38.53%*
* Returns as a % bankroll per season


www.betting-bible.com


Quick follow up on the timing of newsletters after the feedback and suggestions received over the past couple of weeks. Newsletter format will be as follows from now on:
Midweek - Performance review of prior week + Early look at next week's fixtures (limited commentary)
Friday 12pm - Summary of GameWeek Picks (detailed commentary)
Gamedays - Updates via Twitter regarding bets based on team news + In play trading decisions


 
BACK TO THE GAMES………


 
Eve v TotThe draw here represents our most stable, highest value pick this week. We’ve priced the draw at a range between 3.0 to 3.3, and market prices have been creeping upwards from 3.5 since the start of the week so there should be value in this all the way up to game time.
 
Pricing the draw pick at as low as 3.0 may seem aggressive, however if you look at all the games between the teams placed between 4th and 8th over the past 12 seasons, exactly 30% of them have finished as a draw, and the frequency increases when you refine those team ranges. These teams understand the value of taking a point from teams around them, and this epitomised by a manager like Moyes (who has already drawn 6 games this season), and even AVB, who will continue to play with his 2 holding midfielders.
 
Biggest questions marks will be over Spurs, with Bale out and fatigue from the mid-week game, however there’s still enough of a goal threat in them to make a game of it, and Dembele back is a big plus. No significant other key player availability we’re monitoring here at present, but we’ll keep you posted on Twitter on gameday whether the announced lineups have changed our view on the bet.
 
Don’t be surprised if it finishes 1-1, however this scoreline seems to reasonably well priced already given Everton's recent 1-1 turkey. The 0-0 on the other hand at 13+ is an excellent value pick as it often is (our modelled frequency is ~10%) but adjust your stake sizes accordingly if you're getting any exposure to this (no more than 0.1%-0.3%)

Syndicate plan – 3% on the outright draw bet @ Pinnacle price of 3.56, with 0.5% on 0-0 pre-game with view to trading in play.



Whm v Liv Interesting in-house prices depending on the assumptions used regarding the long-term strength of this West Ham squad. However using the history of Allardyce teams as a marker, taking into consideration West Ham’s current form as well as our view of the quality of the West Ham starting XI, there looks to be a high  value in the West Ham win bet, even without  Andy Caroll.
 
Liverpool do not have Luis Suarez through suspension though, clearly a huge loss given that he has scored 10 of their 16 goals in the prem this season, and there is no obvious replacement.  This has already sucked a lot of the value out of the draw bet price offered, but the home win value has remained in tact.
 
Key player watch – Diame. A massive player for West Ham all season, and very understated until his match winning performance against Chelsea last weekend.
 
Syndicate plan – 2% on the outright WHM win bet @ 3.17 with Pinnacle taken midweek in anticipation of a fall in price given last weekend’s result. Likely top up of up to 1% more pregame @ anything over 3.1.

 



Swa v Nor Swansea are VERY short following their recent scalps of Arsenal and West Brom, however the draw price stands out relative to historic outcomes of games between teams in that bottom half of the table.
 
Despite their winning scoreline last weekend, Norwich took a hammering from Sunderland in the second half but held the lead, which highlights how well they’re set up to fight for a game, which will be particularly important away from home. Similarly, in spite of all the nice football played by Swansea that people talk about, Laudrup has demonstrated he understands the value of being hard to score against and not getting beaten with 20 to go as opposed to some of the other bottom half teams such as Southampton and Reading who are considerably more gung-ho, so we’re expecting a low scoring affair, and once again value in the 0-0 at 13s (you’ll get used to us saying this).
 
Key Player Watch - Tettey and Bassong are key to Norwich being a tough team to breakdown, as evidenced by the fact that neither player featured for long in the 5-2 thrashing from Liverpool.
 
Syndicate Plan – 2% pre-game on the DRAW @ 3.75 with Pinncale.

 



Sou v Rea – An interesting game for pre-match prices, in that the Reading win price definitely looks mispriced on the wrong side, ie we recommend laying. The home teams down in the relegation places consistently take points off other relegation teams, and we’ve priced Reading at over 5, versus the current market price of ~4.
 
However, it’s also a game that potentially trades very well in play, as neither team have demonstrated a great deal of defensive competency, so we’re anticipating goals and swings, so whichever way the first goal goes, if you bet on the opposing side or lay the scoring team you’ll get significantly better odds than pre-game. You’ll have to make a running assumption that the in-play prices have inherent value in them, as we can’t give you an indication of what the exact prices will be until the game is play, however we’ll update via Twitter on gameday if we like the in-play prices.
 
Syndicate Plan – 1% on the draw pre-game @ 3.72 with, but we’re holding back further exposure for the in-play trade.

 



Ful v New – The big price on this at 2 at the start of the week was quickly snapped up by the market, however there is still value in the Fulham win down to 1.9.
 
Newcastle are still missing key creative players, and the Monday night result versus Wigan is actually misleading, given that they played against 10 men for the majority of the game, and prior to that, Wigan were looking very dangerous. In addition, like so many others before them, Newcastle’s thin squad has struggled to cope with the fixture congestion as a result of the unforgiving Europa league schedule, and this time of year, this fatigue tends to compound and impact performances the team is able to put out.
 
Fulham on the other hand will welcome back Hangeland, who should tighten things up at the back, and so long as players like Berbatov remain available, the bet at 1.9+ represents good value.

Syndicate Plan – 2% on pre-game Fulham win. Currently holding out for prices to drift back to 2.00

 



Other games

City v United we’re monitoring given the midweek fixtures. However, the stand out price for the game is the 0-0, currently at 15s+ The games between these 2 teams at the Etihad have been very tight in the past few seasons (there hasn't been more than 1 goal between these two at the Etihad for the past 6 seasons), and Fergie will be hammering the United players all week about their defending, which should get them to tighten up.
You can essentially get 2.5+ on there being no goals in the first 30 minutes if you take the pre-game 0-0 price and lay on 30 minutes.
 
Sunderland v Chelsea – Sunderland started the week at 5s but have drifted in. The home win at 5 would have almost been to irresistible to take, however Fletcher’s fitness is a big doubt following an ankle knock, even if he starts. On the Chelsea side, their form is currently very unpredictable, but because of their last 3 results, it has become almost a must win game for them. As such, there’s too much volatility for us to pick a suitable value price, so we’re steering clear.
 
Arsenal v Wba – Arsenal are in a similar situation to Chelsea above, in that it is a must win game for Wenger now, highlighted by how many key players he rested midweek versus Olympiakos. The Wba form is in question, however that’s jumping the gun slightly, as technically they’ve only lost away to the Swansea superstars, and had their reserve team lose to Stoke, because Liam Ridgewell decided to wipe his bottom with £20 notes.
We’ve been monitoring the Arsenal win all week, and we’ll look to take some exposure to the Arsenal win at >1.6. We'll keep you updated on Twitter if there's nay movement on this.
 
Wigan v QPR – Harry has come in and seemingly made them harder to beat immediately, and his presence makes it very difficult to put a stable price on, so we’re steering clear. It could trade relatively well in play though.


Syndicate Performance to date
GW15 BetsStakePriceRtn
Ars Win 5.0% 1.50 (5.0)%
Ful Win 2.0% 3.10 (2.0)%
Mci Win 4.0% 1.60 (4.0)%
Mci Draw 1.0% 4.47 3.47%
Liv Draw 1.5% 5.24 (1.5)%
Mnu Win 4.0% 2.54 6.16%
Sun Win 2.0% 4.18 (2.0)%
Mnu 0-0 0.1% 16.00 (0.1)%
Total GW15 (4.47)%
GW14 3.0%
Prior wks 40.0%
Total rtn to date 38.53%


All in all, a bad week at the office. As usual when this happens, a reminder that it is well within our variance tolerance, and especially after the overperformance relative to our expectations at the start of the season. We have no issues with the value identified in the selected bets prior to game day. Remember, we're looking for prices being offered that don't reflect the true likelihood of the event occuring.

This often leaves us with:
1) short price favourites (because prices are so short that the general punter will not earn a significant enough return on their bet to place the bet - leading to a mispriced market, and
2) outside bets when the inferior team is playing at home (because the general punter money does not correctly identify the importance of home advantage, in particular the draw price value is neglected here, since such an outcome is complex for a punter to comprehend, meaning the weight of money is shared between the home and away win prices, increasing the value within the draw price).

The outside picks therefore, are generally not the most likely outcome of the game though, we're just sayning that they'll come in more often than the odds implie, and therefore over the long-run you can make money backing these selections, however over a small sample size, you'll have volatility in your returns, which is why we have a stake size recommendation.


As for last week's picks, the main change from those discussed in last week's email were the dropping of the West Brom bet, and the addition of the Sunderland bet. Both lost. We've given a bit more comment on each of the game bets in a bit more detail.
 

Arsenal Win - The biggest surprise, and by all accounts a comprehensive victory by an in-form Swansea. We've still not been through the full 90 minutes of the game tapes, however an unfortunate outcome given what is normally a reasonably low variance type bet. This period of fixture congestion does throw up some surprise results, and our independent price ranges our more volatile, but we're happy that our pricing was solid enough, particularly given the starting XIs put out - in particular with Swansea missing 2 of their in form players. Having said that, Nathan Dyer tore Arsenal apart single-handedly last season, and he enjoyed himself again last week.


Fulham Win - A high variance, but high value pick at 3.1. In general, when the favourite (in terms of odds) is not a top 3 or 4 team and is playing away, there is inherently a lot of value in opposing the favourite. Arguably Spurs fans will be claiming they're a top 4 side after 2 top 4 finishes in 3 years, but 4th is the highest end of their finishing range, with 5th and 6th still a strong possibility. The scoreline in this game also doesn't reflect the full story of the 90 minutes, with Fulham arguably on top for the first half, but the 2 previous battling away games seemed to catch up with their reasonably thin Fulham squad.


City v Everton - I'll confess we're not completely happy with the staking decisions here, as there was more value in the draw according to our independent prices, however the Coral price drift to 1.6 was late on, and enough of the big players were selected to sway us towards the win bet.


Liv v South - Monster draw price, low frequency of coming in. Also, Southampton have demonstrated that they can score against the top teams, so there reasonable potential in-play trading value on a pre-game draw price.


Reading v United - We lost out by holding on for the in play bet versus West Ham the week before, however this game turned out perfectly for us, and provide some light relief to the other game losses. Not one, but 2 opportunities to back United at better than evens, and fortunately we could filled twice on 2% stakes, averaging a 2.54 price.


West Brom v Stoke - The West Brom starting XI put us off this bet, and apologies to those following on Twitter for the outcome of the review on this bet. Technical difficulties on our first week updating via Twitter. Won't happen again.


Norwich v Sunderland - This Sunderland win price just kept on drifting out, right up to kick off, and at 4.18, there was enough implied value for us to get some exposure. Slightly too much at 2% for that type of event, 1% would have been more appropriate. Nonetheless, Sunderland were unfortunate not come away with at least a draw, after hammering Norwich in the second half. For some reason, Sunderland insist on giving teams a 2 goal head start before they get going at the moment. We keep saying it, but we expect Sunderland to pick up in the next few weeks, so some high value betting opportunities should present themselves soon.

 

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