GAME WEEK 28
Syndicate target returns 25% vs Season to date returns 51.5%*
GW28 Key Bets Under Consideration**
Recommendations as a percentage of total bankroll
(17:30 KO) 2.5%@>1.6 Wig v Liv – Over 2.5 goals
(17:30 KO) 1%@>1.65 Wig v Liv – BTTS
2%@>3.6 Sou v Qpr - DRAW
1.5% >1.6 Mnu v Nor – Over 2.5 goals 1.67@BlueSQ
1.5%@>2 SWA to beat New (see notes below)
Wig v Liv
There is some uncertainty over the fitness of Sturridge, which puts a small dampener on the over 2.5 goals bet, so we’ll be monitoring the team news on this game to determine stake sizes, however regardless of Sturridge – there’s still decent value in both the Over 2.5 goals and Both Teams To Score (BTTS) based on both Wigan and Liverpool’s scoring and conceding rates throughout the season, and the current scoring form of both teams.
Sou v Qpr
A typical high variance but value draw pick. There’s potentially value in the straight Qpr lay, however the big Southampton win prices early in the week at almost 2.1 have been backed in to ~1.91 now, so the value there has probably been missed. Southampton do have good form going into the game, combined with the availability of a number of key players – including the return of Lallana. For Qpr, it’s obviously a must win game, so if they go a goal down, Harry almost has to throw everything he can at getting something out of the game, so it’s definitely one to watch-out for some potential in-play trading.
Mnu v Nor
With the availability of RVP in doubt, the midweek game against Real Madrid, the fact that Norwich have only won 1 game away all season, and the fact that the league is effectively already won, there’s good reason to believe that SAF will field a weakened side against Norwich. However, United will still field a team capable of scoring goals, and some of the peripheral players that may play could actually increase United’s attacking potency as well as their propensity to concede. Additionally, Norwich are without Alex Tettey in midfield, and without a natural holding midfield replacement, they have tended to be significantly easier to exploit in his absence.
Swa v New
Definitely one we’ll be waiting to hear some team news on before taking any exposure.
The Swansea win price has drifted in slightly during the week, likely on the back of the news that Newcastle may be without Coloccini, and although Newcastle have seen a resurgence which had a slight delay being factored into prices, we still price the Swansea win bet at closer to evens, so there is value evident.
Against inferior opposition, Swansea have fielded some very attacking line-ups of late, with Dyer, Routledge, Michu, Pablo, and De Guzman all making the first XI. Given that Swansea have already secured European football next season and are effectively already safe from relegation, they may continue to play with such an attacking line-up, and if they do, we’ll potentially shift most of our exposure on this game to the Over 2.5 goal bet for as much as 3%.
* Returns as % of bankroll per season - read the Value Betting tutorial for more info. Includes 12% rtn on FPL top scorer betting
**All bets subject to review of price movements and team announcements on gamedays. Please follow the Twitter account for game day news