GAME WEEK 24
Syndicate target returns 25% vs Season to date returns 40%*
Click to view GW24 Full pricing stats
GW24 Key Bets Under Consideration
3.5% @>2.1 STO to beat Wig
Wed 7:45pm/8pm3.5%@>1.7 Ars v Liv - Over 2.5 goals
2% @>4.2 Eve v Wba DRAW
5% @>1.2 MNU to beat Sou
Above the picks, we've included a link to view the more detailed pricing stats. These have been available in the past few emails, however feedback has suggested it has gone unnoticed so hopefully this will finally get some attention this week. These stats will help you get a feel for where the value lies within the matches, so we do recommend familiarising yourself with them, in particular as much of the total goal betting data we'll be including in future emails will take a similar format.
Commentary on the Wednesday picks will follow this evening's games, and there isn't much to say regarding today's pick for Stoke to beat Wigan. Whilst Stoke do not have recent form on their side, nor do Wigan, and although the price could reflect the fact that Wigan rested several key players during saturday's FA cup win at Macclesfield, over evens for Stoke at home versus a bottom 6 side is a more than reasonable price.
Lastly, Ladbrokes have decided to run another book on top FPL point scorer this week, despite Theo coming in at 12 to 1 last game week. In general this book is very badly priced, however there was evidence of clear mispricing of last time's double game week, so we'll take a look at this again before tomorrow and update.
Quick comment on last night's scores as whenever there are 0-0 results I like to remind people that whilst 1-1 is the most common scoreline in the premier league, we continue to find evidence that long-term backing of the 0-0 bet is the most profitable correct score market. The more statistical modelling versus historic outcome analysis we do on this the more convinced we are of this point, since goal modelling (a technique undoubtedly used by the bookmaking price setters) consistently underestimates the frequency of the 0-0 result. Rather than blind backing every game to be 0-0 at stakes of <0.5%, we're still currently looking at some more refined approaches to taking the value from this market (particularly backing to lay) which we'll hopefully update you with over the next few weeks.
Back to the picks...
Ars v Liv - Over2.5 goals The Liv price is traditionally too short and there is more and more anecdotal evidence that overseas money is influencing the price, so we'll likely take some exposure to Arsenal win/Liverpool lay however as usual we'll be waiting right up to kick off on this as the Liverpool lay prices have tended to peak at this point. The value in the price does seem to be weighted towards the Arsenal win, however with Vermaelen only being passed 'available' last night, we'll be keeping an eye on the team sheets before decided upon our final pick on this one and will try to keep you updated via Twitter.
That being said, we will definitely be taking some exposure to the Over 2.5 goal market at 1.75. Not too much to say regarding the pick. We've been refining much of the statistical analysis regarding goal bets, and the line-ups, and player availability looks like it will be playing into our hands, with doubts over the fitness of Vermaelen, the increased attacking threat from Arsenal's current players available, as well as the potency of the Liverpool front line with the combination of Sturridge and Suarez.
Stake size on the Over 2.5 goal bet will depend on whether Vermaelen starts, however we'll likely take some exposure to this early, as the price has been moving downwards from 1.79 throughout the week.
Eve v Wba - Draw Well liked by the stats although this is a high variance pick given its true likelihood of coming in. Appetite for this is slightly dampened given Brom's continued injury problems and current situation with Odemwingie who is apparently more interested in joining up with a team with a good chance of getting relegated, in return for a payrise and a ticket out of the midlands. Everton's goal scoring threat is reduced with the absence of Mirallas's creativity after only recently returning to the team, and Jelavic has continued to fall short in front of goal.
MNU to Beat Sou Not a great deal to say on this. RvP was rested at the weekend, Rooney now has more game time since his lay off over Christmas, and has probably managed to burn off most of the excess weight he'd have picked up over the festive period. It is a very short price, and a win from City last would have suited better to maintain 'the importance' of this game. However we're still comfortable there's a long term 5%+ return from this type of bet. The 'favourite v long shot' concept comes into play here, as the price is so short not enough market money is traditionally put on the United win bet given how low the potential returns available are.
* Returns as % of bankroll per season - read the Value Betting tutorial for more info. Includes 12% rtn on FPL top scorer betting