GAME WEEK 29
Syndicate target returns 25% vs Season to date returns 52%*
GW29 Key Bets Under Consideration**
Recommendations as a percentage of total bankroll
(Sun 16:00 KO) 4%@>1.55 Liv v Tot BTTS 1.65@188Bet
(Sun 16:00 KO) 1.5%@>3.9 Liv v Tot DRAW
3%@>1.9 Wba v Swa – Under 2.5 goals
2%@>1.85 Nor v Sou- Over 2.5 goals 1.92@188Bet
(Sun 16:30 KO - FA cup) 3% >1.75 MNU to beat Che 1.83@Coral
Liv v Tot
Particularly good value in the Both Teams To Score bet this week given the goal scoring statistics for both sides, as well as the current form and availability of their key goal scorers. As usual, there also looks to be value in opposing Liverpool for this game, however their price is beginning to correct itself, and their new players have strengthened the side so the infamous 'liverpool lay' may be coming to an end shortly. In addition, whilst it was a dominant display from Spurs against Inter, the midweek game will have an effect on the players, particularly during the latter stages of this weekend's game, and as such we're recommending also taking some exposure to the pre game Draw bet, which could be profitably traded out in play.
Wba v Swa
In general West Brom have made themselves very difficult to beat at home this season, exemplified by the fact that only Chelsea, City, and Liverpool have conceded few goals at home. On the flip side, only Manchester City and Arsenal have conceded fewer goals away from home than Swansea this season, and as such, in the absence of any injury news to key defensive players, the fixture lends itself nicely to a low scoring affair.
Nor v Sou
The Over 2.5 goal bet on this coult easily be replaced by the BTTS bet at 1.7 with Ladbrokes if you're looking for slightly lower variance pick, however Alex Tettey remains out for Norwich, which leaves them without a natural holding midfield replacement, and we don't believe has been sufficiently factored into bookmaker prices. In addition, Southampton are more than capable of scoring away from home which, could significantly open the game up given the importance results for all teams in the bottom 10 at this stage in the season.
Mnu v Che
An FA cup game so slightly outside of our normal remit, however Manchester United's home win record this season has consistently outperformed bookmaker prices, and given their recent exit from the Champions league (and hence increased desire to win an alternative trophy) combined with Chelsea's midweek trip to Romania, there is plenty of value evident in this week's United win price. The team news will be interesting, with both managers likely to rotate players, so we'll be holding on taking any exposure until the team sheets are available an hour before kick off.
* Returns as % of bankroll per season - read the Value Betting tutorial for more info. Includes 12% rtn on FPL top scorer betting
**All bets subject to review of price movements and team announcements on gamedays. Please follow the Twitter account for game day news